Yesterday, in this video, fellow business forecaster and futurist,
Patrick Dixon, discussed why he thinks the future of the paper
industry is bright for the foreseeable future. Personally, I’m not
so optimistic and to understand why I’d invite you to watch the
short video below which documents the impressive work researchers
at Queen’s University’s Human Media Lab are doing in creating
“organic user interfaces.”
To be sure, the technology is still not very sophisticated and,
in general, people will be reluctant to change; but if one
considers the success of Amazon’s Kindle and then extrapolates out
(or “jumps the curve”) how organic user interface technology will
only continue to improve in the near future, it is entirely
possible that growing legions of people will soon turn away from
reading the content of newspapers, magazines and books on paper and
instead choose to use flexible electronic paper. This will be
especially true if, as the video suggests, flexible electronic
paper feels like paper and the user can even turn the page in a
fashion similar to paper.
Futurist Patrick Dixon compellingly argues
that the global economic environment is ripe for Chinese investment
in bargain priced banks and U.S. property holdings:
Dixon asserts that it is in U.S. interests to allow direct
Chinese investment, lest the rising economy allocate its money
elsewhere.
He also expects sovereign wealth fund managers representing
other powerhouse economies to diversify into technology,
pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, mining and oil industry if prices
continue to fall.
Futurist Patrick Dixon argues that the
current sub-prime mortgage crisis is likely to further discourage
the UK from joining the European Union currency bloc any time
soon:
Futurist Patrick Dixon predicts that
widespread emotional pressure will fuel a $40 trillion industry
dedicated to the reduction of carbon emissions.
“We will see a 10x or even a 100x increase in the emotional
pressure on governments to take action on every aspect of global
warming,” says Dixon, “It will affect the decisions consumers make.
It will affect the opinions that they hold. It will affect the
image of multi-nationals, and I’m not just talking about oil
companies – I’m talking about banks … shipping companies …
airlines. Every company in the world will be called on to justify
its carbon footprint.”
If the near-term future validates Dixon’s opinions then we’re
bound to witness great economic disruption that sucks a great deal
of market cap from established companies and infuses it into the
entities that can provide the most cost-effective solutions.
Depending on the timing and pacing of such a shift, and the
efficacy of the new technologies and methods that hit the market,
it seems we could experience anything ranging from a depression to
a boom.
Maybe it’s time to start hording those precious solar cells,
bury your money in a pit, or just live it up!
In his latest YouTube video futurist Patrick Dixon says paper use is
up because it “has this extraordinary capacity to deliver bandwidth
to human beings” due to higher resolution as compared to digital
screens.
“The sheer physicality of books makes them supremely readable.
It’s a very high definition source for the eye,” says Dixon, adding
that books are “very convenient. You can read through [them]
incredibly quickly. You can flip pages around.”
As to how long will paper continue to dominate communication,
Dixon forecasts that the industry “will continue for a very long
time despite all the advances that are being talked about for the
next 10 years.”
