By Dick Pelletier
Humans have always been fascinated by robots, a fascination
fueled in part by science-fiction renderings of such characters as
R2D2, C3PO, HAL, The Terminator,
and Data.
However, a world run by robots is no longer
science-fiction. Today, robotic systems work on assembly lines;
clean floors; monitor kids; help the disabled; explore Mars; and
assist in our security.
IRobot CEO,
Rodney Brooks says
the robotics industry is undergoing huge changes with major focus
now on personal robots. Industry consultant Dr. Joanne
Pransky agrees. In 10 years, Pransky expects to purchase a
robot that can clean house, prepare and serve meals, and help her
become more efficient with tomorrow’s technologies.
Much impetus for robot development comes from Japan, where
demographic trends and labor costs have created a growing market
for machines that replace humans. Hitachi’s EMIEW can perform any number of factory and
office jobs.
“Hold on”, say opponents. Though robots perform many mundane and
physical jobs that humans don’t want, the net result is that
millions become unemployed. Seegrid chief scientist,
Hans Moravec agrees
that future robotic development could be disruptive to the
economy.
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Exponential
technology and information are
poised to transform the world, but can the human species muster the
social will to let that happen? 
To date we’ve created amazingly fuel-efficient cars, robust water
purifiers, revolutionary stem cell -based therapies, and
better, cheaper light bulbs, all of which have met with great
social and political resistance, greatly slowing the pace of their
spread. This has caused many to scratch their heads in confusion,
others to curse up at the sky, and some to chuckle at the naivete
of their fellow meme-monkeys.
Take for example Dean Kamen, the
Edison of our time who invented compact kidney dialysis, the
Segway human
transporter and most recently a water purifier that could save
upwards of 5 million lives in under-developed nations if widely
deployed. Kamen’s innovations have repeatedly encountered social
barriers, causing him to proclaim that creating new technology is
the easy part.
“I’m disappointed with every project I ever do. Because you work
on something for years that you think should take hours. You
finally get it done and you think, ‘Now the world’s going to be a
better place,’ expressed Kamen in a recent Newsweek article,
“Then you find out that as fast as technology moves, people move at
the same slow, cautious pace they always did. If anything, people
have gotten more cautious, more afraid of change, more skeptical,
more cynical.”
Sloth-like technology diffusion is nothing new. The late great
Everett Rogers
taught us that all technologies except for Interactive
Communication Technologies (ICTs) spread at an amazingly slow rate
due to cultural barriers. Seasoned futurists all point out a
consistent bias in favor of overly ambitious predictions and
sternly warn their fellow prognosticators to avoid similar
mistakes. And now Kamen has joined the ranks of those with enough
experience to back up the notion. (cont.)
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By Dick Pelletier
In just ninety seconds, the Great Kanto
Earthquake destroyed Japan’s economy in 1923 throwing the
country into chaos. Instability opened the door for a military
government, which quickly led to war in Southeast Asia, then to
WWII, dishing out unimaginable horrors to
the world. 
Could a 1923 disaster repeat itself? What if the Southern
California “Big One”, forecast for years by experts, actually
happened and 16 million people suddenly found their homes submerged
in the Pacific Ocean? Could an event like this destroy the American
economy, and how would that affect the rest of the world?
Property losses from violent weather are increasing. The recent
Myanmar cyclone and
China earthquake have both caused huge losses in lives,
weakened economies and devastated areas. Everyone enjoys nature’s
breathtaking beauty and we could not exist without its bounty, but
sometimes this Earth we call home can be harsh and unforgiving.
Forward-thinking scientists believe current knowledge of weather
modification, combined with our newest wonder science – molecular
nanotechnology – will one day provide an opportunity for humanity
to inoculate itself against natural disasters.
Geologists describe earth’s atmosphere as an envelope of air,
rotating with the continents and oceans; receiving enormous amounts
of energy from the Sun’s radiation, which powers weather events.
Typical energy expended in a tornado funnel is equal to about fifty
kilotons of explosives; a thunderstorm exchanges about ten times
this much during its lifetime; and a moderate size Atlantic
hurricane can build up to more than 1,000 megatons of energy.
(cont.)
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By Dick Pelletier
A new higher-speed Internet2, now under development in labs
around the world, will one day offer holographic images
indiscernible from reality, providing an array of applications that
we can only dream of today. 
With digital video resolution four times finer than today’s
HDTV, and haptic technologies that
provide a realistic sense of touch, researchers can create
holograph images of people filmed thousands of miles away enabling
lifelike virtual interaction indiscernible from reality. The system
uses cameras that capture live images of people from two or more
places, merges the data, and feeds it back to all locations.
We could organize a meeting with friends or relatives from
cities scattered around the world without anyone actually
traveling. People will kiss, hug and reminisce as if they were in
the same room. And our senses will convince us that they are there.
We could even meet with a simulation of a favorite celebrity.
(cont.)
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By Dick Pelletier
An ulterior motive drives much of the optimism and positive take
that appears in ‘FutureTalk’ articles which describe how the future
might unfold. 
There is an audacious thought roaming through my brain that the
“magical future” I describe so often actually includes me. With a
little luck, I believe that I can stay alive and reap all the
benefits this wonder time has to offer.
Though more than 50 million will die in 2008, I am convinced
that I will not be among them. In researching articles each week, I
discover facts that support the optimistic slant that each topic
seems to take.
Chronologically my body has reached seventy-seven years;
biologically it behaves as a mid-sixty-year-old, and emotionally it
sometimes acts like a ‘30 something. By continuing to believe
optimistically about the future, it’s easy for me to imagine myself
‘being there’. (cont.)
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By Dick Pelletier
I believe humans and their machines will evolve into a
mind-boggling future.
We will greet new technologies with much joy. By late 2020’s and
early 2030’s, advanced nanotech could be making everything from
dishes to carpets 
self-cleaning, and household air permanently fresh. For
properly designed nano-replicators, dirt would become food.
High resolution screens could project different images to each
eye, giving us incredible 3D TV so real that the screen would seem
like a window into another world.
Some envision systems that would share thoughts and emotions
from mind to mind. It may be possible in the future to link neural
structures via transducers and electromagnetic signals to provide a
sort of telepathy easier to use than today’s telephones.
And of course as we trek through what some experts describe as
the “golden age of intelligence” – 2035-2050 – humanity could learn
to merge with their machines resulting in powerful bodies that
require no maintenance. Say goodbye to human aging and unwanted
deaths.
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By Dick Pelletier
Imagine a future where there is no clear distinction between
real and simulated events. Welcome to the world of virtual reality.
In contrast to today’s crude videoconferencing methods, tomorrow’s
revolutionary “telepresence” systems expected by 2015 or before,
will look and sound like you are actually together in real reality.
You’ll establish eye contact, look around each other, and otherwise
have the sense of being together. 
Tomorrow’s Internet will power this new system. Cameras will
transmit live two-way pictures over a terabyte-speed network
similar to today’s Internet2. With
sensors embedded in clothing to track movement, parties at both
ends can project themselves into a virtual reality 3-D simulation
of the event – everyone interacts with everyone with
“telepresence.”
“This new system marks the beginning of a revolution expected to
take us by storm in the next decade,” says Dr. Pierre Boulanger,
University of Alberta VR researcher. People separated by distance
can be together in this virtual world, to enjoy a living room chat,
share meals at the dinner table, or cozy up even more intimately.
Everyone feels hand shakes, hugs and kisses as if they were
real.
In addition, say goodbye to confusing controls for home
entertainment systems and computers. Lifelike 3D avatars (virtual
assistants) which speak perfect “human” will become our primary
interface with all our technologies.
These amazing screen images will do just about everything for
us. They will answer questions; negotiate Internet transactions;
make it easy for us to operate computers and home entertainment
systems; and maintain household temperature, lighting and security.
These cute creatures, resembling favorite celebrities or loved
ones, will appear on our TV, cell phone screen, and car radio
display. Later, advances in holography will enable avatars to jump
off the screen and follow us around the house. (cont.)
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By Dick Pelletier
In the future, your car will detect danger possibilities and
protect you as you encounter other cars on the road. It will
automatically display a happy, sad, or angry look to convey
appropriate feelings to other drivers in response to their action.
This is the vision of four Toyota Motor employees in Japan who
recently patented this creative technology. 
Car modifications include a hood with slits and designs that
resemble eyebrows, eyelids and tears, which glow with different
light shades and colors to reflect desired moods; an antenna that
wags like a puppy dog’s tail to show happiness; and a body that can
crouch low on its wheelbase when timid, or stand tall to express
displeasure.
By 2015 or before, “cars with feelings” could be arriving at
dealer showrooms everywhere. These cars can display a wide range of
expressions to help us interact with other drivers on the road.
Today, we can only honk horns, tap brakes, flash headlights, or use
turn signals. It’s difficult to thank another driver for letting us
enter the lane, or to show disapproval at someone who cuts us
off.
The intelligence system on these new cars with personalities
calculate road and vehicle conditions such as steering angle,
braking, and speed. It also correlates driver reactions, road and
car conditions, and automatically creates correct color and
position for the eyebrows, antenna, lights and vehicle height.
If a pre-set number of points indicate an approaching careless
or hostile driver, the system creates an anger reaction. The
headlights glow red, the eyebrows light up, but the antenna and
height remains in a standard “cool” position. A happy, satisfied
look is displayed to reward a courteous driver. A friendly “wink”
shows that you agree with a driver’s action, or it could also be an
attempt at flirting. (cont.)
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By Dick Pelletier
As our “miracle” 21st century begins to unfold, a statement,
which has been an eternal truth for most of human history, is now
being seriously challenged: Humans will always be battling
sicknesses. Many scientists believe this statement could be
overturned within the next three decades, and most of the credit
for this feat would lie in our ability to increase computer power.
Today, medical researchers, in efforts to cure heart disease,
cancer, obesity, Alzheimer’s disease, and many other human ills,
perform trial and error experiments in labs, and conduct human
clinical trials that yield excruciatingly slow results. Cancer
deaths are predicted to not end for another seven years, and cures
for other diseases are projected to be even more elusive.
But researchers say we could speed medical research progress by
first using Clinical Trial Simulations (CTS). If we preceded actual
human trials with high-speed computer simulations, the end results
would be reached much faster. Ronald Gieschke, of Hoffmann-La Roche
in Switzerland, claims CTS will have a
significant impact on the way in which drugs are developed in the
future. “Human clinical trials will still be necessary,” Gieschke
says, “but CTS will make them faster and
more accurate”.
In addressing the need for increased computer power,
IBM’s new “Roadrunner,” built for the US
Department of Energy’s Los Alamos National Laboratory has achieved
performance of 1.026 petaflops (more than one quadrillion floating
point operations per second) and is now rated as the fastest
supercomputer in the world.
The DOE announced that this computer
will link its facilities to other government labs and major
research centers around the world. Scientists will find easy access
to this new supercomputer later this year, according to a
LANL spokesman. The new machine will
enable breakthrough discoveries in biology that will fundamentally
change medical science and its impact across society. (cont.)
Continue Reading
Time Travel could become reality sooner than you
think.
By Dick Pelletier
At a UCLA workshop attended by yours
truly and an assortment of future-thinkers, the late physicist Dr.
Robert Forward told the group that further understanding of general
relativity and quantum mechanics would one 
day enable humans to travel backwards and forwards
through time. “Given the money and the mandate,” Forward said, “a
time machine will be built.”
This workshop convened in 1983, and today, 24 years later,
scientists are bringing this bold concept closer to reality.
Professor Amos Ori at Technion-Israel Institute of Technology
recently created a theoretical model of a time machine based on
Einstein’s theory of relativity, which would allow people to travel
back in time.
Ori’s theory, published in the prestigious science journal
Physical Review, describes how a future time machine could be built
by forming “closed time-like curves” in a donut-shaped area of
space-time. A person traveling around this donut loop would go
further back in time with each lap.
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By Dick Pelletier
Today, we are entering the beginning stages of a society that
many futurists believe will not end until man and machine become
completely integrated into a single being – an enhanced human.
The biotech revolution, from 2010 to 2020, promises to correct
many of our biological flaws including vulnerability to disease and
telltale signs of aging. Doctors will re-grow cells, tissues and
organs to replace aging body parts; and by as early as mid-2020s,
most humans can look forward to an extended healthy lifespan of 200
years or more.
Molecular nanotech marks the next step in our march towards this
futuristic society. From about 2025, we will enjoy home-replicators
that provide food, clothing, and essentials at little cost; and
tiny nanobots that roam through arteries and veins keeping us
forever fit and healthy.
The final stage of achieving this remarkable future lies in
supercomputers and artificial intelligence; powerful robot-like
machines that many predict will outthink humans by 2030. These
silicon marvels will possess reasoning and logic similar to our
own, but can share data and knowledge millions of times faster than
we can with our slow human language; a desirable feature that many
humans will want to incorporate into their bodies, experts say.
(cont.)
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By Dick Pelletier
Throw away the computer mouse, keyboard, and TV remote. A new
speaking machine, expected in the next decade, is about to become
your newest “electronic” friend. This new voice-interactive machine
will browse the Internet searching for information it thinks will
interest you, and will help unravel the maize of TV channels. The
machine will converse in a pleasant voice as it listens carefully
to your instructions, then offers suggestions on what Internet data
or TV programs it thinks you might enjoy. 
This new voice-interactive machine will appear as an avatar – an
on-screen image resembling your favorite movie character, religious
icon, or loved one. On command, it will appear on the TV screen,
computer monitor, car radio or cell phone, addressing you by name,
and asking what you would like.
Most people think interactive systems like these are a long way
off, but two trends are quickening the pace. Improved
speech-recognition systems will soon enable people to converse with
computers in normal-spoken language, and entrepreneurs are rushing
to the Internet creating new business applications with software
“agents” that take advantage of speech recognition.
Microsoft’s Bill Gates claims that by 2012, voice-enabled
“smart” systems will allow us to converse naturally and
comfortably, directly with our display, reducing need for mouse and
keyboard. Avatars will help us shop, work, learn, and conduct
business and social relationships on the Internet. At home, they
will provide security, change lighting and temperature as needed,
and deliver news, sports, games, and entertainment anywhere in the
house. (cont.)
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